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- Episode 1 What Is Statistics
- Episode 2 Mathematical Thinking
- Episode 3 Mean, Median, and Mode: Measures of Central Tendency
- Episode 4 Measures of Spread
- Episode 5 Charts Are Like Pasta - Data Visualization Part 1
- Episode 6 Plots, Outliers, and Justin Timberlake: Data Visualization Part 2
- Episode 7 The Shape of Data: Distributions
- Episode 8 Correlation Doesn’t Equal Causation
- Episode 9 Controlled Experiments
- Episode 10 Sampling Methods and Bias with Surveys
- Episode 11 Science Journalism
- Episode 12 Henrietta Lacks, the Tuskegee Experiment, and Ethical Data Collection
- Episode 13 Probability Part 1: Rules and Patterns
- Episode 14 Probability Part 2: Updating Your Beliefs with Bayes
- Episode 15 The Binomial Distribution
- Episode 16 Geometric Distributions and The Birthday Paradox
- Episode 17 Randomness
- Episode 18 Z-Scores and Percentiles
- Episode 19 The Normal Distribution
- Episode 20 Confidence Intervals
- Episode 21 How P-Values Help Us Test Hypotheses
- Episode 22 P-Value Problems
- Episode 23 Playing with Power: P-Values Pt 3
- Episode 24 You Know I’m All About that Bayes
- Episode 25 Bayes in Science and Everyday Life
- Episode 26 Test Statistics
- Episode 27 T-Tests: A Matched Pair Made in Heaven
- Episode 28 Degrees of Freedom and Effect Sizes
- Episode 29 Chi-Square Tests
- Episode 30 P-Hacking
- Episode 31 The Replication Crisis
- Episode 32 Regression
- Episode 33 ANOVA
- Episode 34 ANOVA Part 2: Dealing with Intersectional Groups
- Episode 35 Fitting Models Is like Tetris
- Episode 36 Supervised Machine Learning
- Episode 37 Unsupervised Machine Learning
- Episode 38 Intro to Big Data
- Episode 39 Big Data Problems
- Episode 40 Statistics in the Courts
- Episode 41 Neural Networks
- Episode 42 War
- Episode 43 When Predictions Fail
- Episode 44 When Predictions Succeed
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Today we’re going to talk about why many predictions fail - specifically we’ll take a look at the 2008 financial crisis, the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and earthquake prediction in general. From inaccurate or just too little data to biased models and polling errors, knowing when and why we make inaccurate predictions can help us make better ones in the future. And even knowing what we can’t predict can help us make better decisions too.
Runtime: 13:14 minutes
Quality: HD
First Air Date: Jan 24, 2018
Last Air date: Jan 09, 2019
Episode: 44 Episode
Season: 1 Season
IMDb: 9
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